iakttakelser (observations)

Neither I does understand the current valuation of Apple. Thanks to Dediu, I at least see the problem! "As the following scorecard shows, the company’s growth is exceptional. That does not seem to be something that is being valued by investors." By Horace Dediu from Asymco.com at http://www.asymco.com/2011/04/27/the-apple-growth-scorecard/

If you remember the blogpost describing the iPhone as the most desireable phone in China . That desire will have an impact on $AAPL according to Forbes. A post from The Unofficial Apple Weblog (TUAW) by Michael Grothaus has the whole story . Here is a part: Eric Jackson at Forbes has written a piece with some astounding numbers about  Apple's business in China . Most impressively, Jackson thinks because of Apple's China business Apple shares will hit $547 per share by January 2012, only nine months away. That's an impressive upswing from AAPL's closing price of $348.51 yesterday. Jackson opines that Apple's four current Chinese Apple stores bring in US$1.3 billion per year, per store. With Apple set to open as many as 25 retail stores in China, and the Chinese "gaga for Apple," that means Apple's Chinese retail stores alone could draw in another US$32bn a year for the company. That's not counting iPhone sales through carrier stores, Apple...

A post from asymco.com by Horace Dediu has the original story . Here it is with kind permission: Apple is having difficulty meeting demand for the iPhone and the iPad. It is growing both businesses at more than 100% and they make up about 65% of revenues, and  71% of profits . The  Mac business is also growing  at 2x to 3x the PC industry. Being supply constrained makes it therefore a great challenge to forecast future growth for the company. Supply issues and ramp rates are needful of an operational expertise few possess outside of the industry. But many take up this challenge, myself included. We put up our numbers every quarter and  get scrutinized  and challenged for our failures. So it’s always exciting to see how others are looking at the big picture.  Sadly, with the growth data being what it is, there seems to be a great deal of pessimism around the company’s prospects. The P/E ratio has remained at  despondent levels  for over two...

A post from The Unofficial Apple Weblog (TUAW) by Michael Grothaus has the whole story . Here is a part: AAPL shares got  slapped silly  before market open this morning after a JMP Securities analyst initiated a rare downgrade on AAPL stock yesterday due to assumed problems with Apple's ability to manage the supply chain for its iOS devices in the wake of the disaster in Japan. But not soon after the AAPL sell-off, many other analysts came to Apple's defense, including Barclays Capital's Ben Reitzes. Reitzes stated that the perceived effect of the troubles in Japan were overblown in relation to how Apple's supply chain would be affected. In a research note, Reitzes stated, "While still a fluid situation, we believe the comments made by QCOM [Qualcomm] may alleviate at least some concerns for Apple given uncertainty around the iPhone supply chain for both current and future products (QCOM chips are used in Verizon iPhone 4s and iPad 2s and we believe QCOM will ...

A post from TechCrunch by MG Siegler has the whole story . Here is a part:   It’s hard to believe that it wasn’t even a year ago when I wrote the following post:  What Happens When Apple Passes Microsoft In Value? Yes, When . It’s even harder to believe just how many people thought I was crazy for saying that — it  happened  just two months later! And while plenty seemed to think that the passing of the torch to Apple as the most valuable tech company would be short-lived, let’s look at where we are today. As of market close this afternoon, Apple is now a full $100 billion past Microsoft. Yes, Apple is the most valuable tech company in the world by $100 billion dollars. To put that in some perspective: the market cap of HP is $105 billion. Apple is now worth an HP more than every other tech company. When I wrote the initial post last March, Apple’s market cap was at $208 billion, while Microsoft stood at $261 billion. By the time Apple passed Microsoft in...

The most undervalued mobile platform is finally getting some investor interest. I expect it to double in 2 year. A post from The Unofficial Apple Weblog (TUAW) by David Winograd has the whole story . Here is a part: Once again, Apple stock ( AAPL ) has hit a new intra-day high and this time it's a really good one. This is the first time Apple has broken into the lofty US $350's. Things are moving quickly but when I started this post, AAPL was up 6.66 points to $353.17 on moderately high volume of about ten million shares, and no one knows where it will wind up for the day. Although the market is having quite a good day, this would indicate to me that much of the bad news and emotion has been filtered out based on the  medical leave  of Steve Jobs. It might also have something to do with the first delivery of the  Verizon iPhone 4 .

Apple's share of profit in the mobile industry has increased to 51%. A post from .com by has the original story . Here it is with kind permissions: The mobile phone market is growing rapidly. It grew 18% in the last quarter. The smartphone market grew even faster, about 75%. To grow share in this market means growing even faster than the market. What we can see from the following charts is how the iPhone as a product grew in share since it was launched 3.5 years ago: Unit share growth slowed in the last quarter but the fourth quarter is not usually the most expansive for Apple. That is usually the third quarter which is the first full-availability launch quarter. The iPhone ended the quarter with 17.25% smartphone share and 4.2% phone share. Share of revenues was about 22% and share of earnings was about 51%. I still hold that 20% smartphone share is possible for the iPhone. As the smartphone market slowly becomes the entire phone market (see chart to the left) that sha...

It's good to be Apple, and it's good to be an Apple developer :D A post from VentureBeat by JP Manninen has the whole story . Here is a part: It’s good to be  Apple . This is true in  many ways , but especially in the mobile applications business. According to research firm  Gartner , nine out of ten downloaded mobile applications in 2010 came from Apple’s App Store. Last year was a booming year for mobile apps. Mobile apps hit globally 8.2 billion downloads and $5.2 billion in revenue, but 2011 will blow those numbers out of the water, as Gartner predicts that worldwide mobile app revenue will triple this year, reaching $15.1 billion in 2011 with 17.7 billion downloads. By 2014, Gartner estimates over 185 billion applications will have been downloaded from mobile app stores worldwide. The staggering numbers are further proof that apps are an integral part of the mobile infrastructure and user experience, not just business. Like Gartner’s research director Stephani...

Horace pinpoint the P/E of Apple:  Looking a bit further ahead, earnings suggest the company is now trading at a forward P/E of about 9.5. I find the P/E valuation of the market strange. If I had money to invest I would do it in Apple - now! A post from asymco.com by Horace Dediu has the original story . Here it is with kind permission: Apple’s CFO guidance statement: We expect revenue to be about $22 billion, compared to $13.5 billion in the March quarter last year. We expect gross margins to be about 38.5%, reflecting approximately $50 million related to stock-based compensation expense. We expect OpEx to be about $2.35 billion, including about $250 million related to stock-based compensation. We expect OI&E to be about $50 million, and we expect the tax rate to be about 25.5%. We are targeting EPS of about $4.90. via  Apple Management Discusses F1Q11 Results – Earnings Call Transcript – Seeking Alpha . This is a particularly aggressive revenue growth forecast...

Mark Sigal has some really good writing. Specially I like his 6 final points, where the headings are: iPhone is unstoppable iPod touch is now 50% of iPod device sales iPad is a monster hit Apple is absolutely killing it in China Enterprise Halo Effect There was zero mention of Apple TV in the call Look at his last. I also expect Apple to have a very good reason indeed not to mension their well-selling Apple TV. We are going to have a lot more fun this year! A post from netgarden's posterous has the original story . Here it is with kind permission: Popout Juxtaposition and Duality were in session at today's  Apple Earnings Call . On the one hand, there was the onslaught of "crap your pants" ungodly numbers and pattern recognition moments that frame so beautifully why Apple stands alone, not just in computers or mobile phones, or even High-Tech, but in  Industry at Large . Consider: 71% gain in Revenue from the prior year's quarter ($26.7B v. $15.7B) ...

Apple posted  Revenue of $26.74 billion. Profit of $6 billion, or $6.43 per diluted share. They sold  7.33 million iPads sold, 16.24 million iPhones , 4.13 million Macs. 19.45 million iPods. The iPhone had a  86% year over year growth, compared to IDC's estimate of 70% growth. FYI - First time Apple has ever beat RIM in two successive quarters - RIM Reported selling 14.2 million blackberry's in latest earnings 1 month ago For iPad  we believe the market is huge, and IDC is predicting that it'll quadruple in two years.  iPad just got started, sold something like 16 million in the first three quarters. I see only 2 competitors, one of them the  Galaxy - basically you wind up with a scaled-up smartphone, a bizarre product in our view For iOS -  so ~10 M iPod touch + 16.2 M iPhone + 7.3 iPad = 33.5 iOS devices Combining iPhone, iPad, iPod touch, we reached a total of over 160 million iOS devices during the quarter About Apple Stores:  ...

I will try to live-comment the earnings expected at 11 pm continental European time. I havn't found a decent hashtag yet, but "Apple Q1 2011" seems to be a good searchterm and I will use this one.

Sometimes it easy to forget that Apple isn't a one man company. Steve Jobs has been on sick-leave long periods before, and Cooks has handled that very well. Here is something from his January 2009 FQ1 2009 Earnings Call. A post from asymco.com by Horace Dediu has the original story . Here it is with kind permission: We believe that we’re on the face of the Earth to make great products, and that’s not changing. We’re constantly focusing on innovating. We believe in the simple, not the complex. We believe that we need to own and control the primary technologies behind the products we make, and participate only in markets where we can make a significant contribution. We believe in saying no to thousands of projects so that we can really focus on the few that are truly important and meaningful to us. We believe in deep collaboration and cross-pollination of our groups, which allow us to innovate in a way that others cannot. And frankly, we don’t settle for anything less...

Just click this line from a computer with QuickTime installed . A post from apple.com has the whole story . Here is a part: WEBCAST: Apple will provide live audio streaming of its FY 11 First Quarter Results Conference Call using Apple's industry-leading QuickTime® multimedia software. The live webcast will begin at 2:00 p.m. PST on January 18, 2011 at www.apple.com/quicktime/qtv/earningsq111 and will also be available for replay for approximately two weeks thereafter. Viewers simply need a copy of QuickTime, available for download from www.apple.com/quicktime, to listen to the conference call. This recording is the property of Apple and protected by U.S. copyright law and international treaties. Any reproduction or distribution is strictly prohibited without prior written approval from Apple. Please contact Apple Public Relations or Investor Relations with any questions. Apple designs Macs, the best personal computers in the world, along with OS X, iLife, iWork, and profession...

A good post from Siegler. And he goes further through the future and stocks. Read it all! A post from TechCrunch by MG Siegler has the whole story . Here is a part: As you’ve undoubtedly heard by now, Apple CEO  Steve Jobs  is taking an  indefinite medical leave of absence  from the company, while remaining on as CEO. As I’m the guy around these parts who is known for writing about Apple, I figured I’d weigh in on some of the high level ramifications of this. I don’t plan to write about Jobs’ health often, as quite frankly, the idea of going on and on with endless speculation about someone who is clearly quite sick doesn’t appeal to me at all. The same would be true if it were the head of Google, Microsoft, Facebook, etc. But that’s not to say there’s no story here. Of course there is. Jobs is the head of the  most valuable technology company  in the world. They’re a public company with many shareholders who have the right to know certain informa...

Steve Jobs sick-leave and Apple earnings. Gruber has a valid comment on both. A post from Daring Fireball by John Gruber has the whole story . Here is a part: Whatever we  expected , we all  hoped  we’d seen our last Steve Jobs medical leave. When the news went out this morning, there was a collective, wincing, “Fuck.” I’m not going to speculate about Steve Jobs’s health, but I will speculate about Apple. The announcement of his leave was perfectly timed: on a weekday, but a holiday on which the U.S. stock market is closed. Apple’s stock is surely going to drop on this news when the market opens tomorrow, but it shouldn’t be a panic. More important than the holiday, though, is that Apple announces its quarterly results tomorrow, and they’re expected to be excellent.  Some smart analysts are expecting Apple’s actual revenue to beat the consensus estimates by $2 billion . That’s an astounding number. Nine years ago Apple didn’t even  have  $2 billion i...

If you look forward for Apple's earnings here are some previews. BTW. The share are at 348 just now, and it doesn't seem to have reacted on Jobs sickleave. A post from .com by has the whole story . Here is a part: Credit Apple Of course tomorrow isn't all about the iPhone. Apple observers are anxious to hear how the  iPad  did during its first holiday sales period and while it's still one of just a few  tablets  for sale--something that will be very different come next December. Overall, financial analysts are expecting yet another great showing from Apple: on average they expect revenue of $24.38 billion and earnings per share of $5.38. Here's the breakdown, by major product category, of what to look for. iPhone:  Bernstein Research thinks Apple will say it sold 15.2 million iPhones in its FYQ1, a 13 percent sequential increase over last year. Some of that increase at the end of the year can be attributed to  AT&T allowing its customers to up...

Apple declariation of finacials are big events. I hope I some day can do it together with someone like @gruber @netgarden or @asymco. Sadly, I'm leaving Helsinki on the 16th, and none in my family share this odd obsession of myself... A post from The Unofficial Apple Weblog (TUAW) by Dave Caolo has the whole story . Here is a part: Apple has officially  announced  its intention to share Q1 2011 financial results on January 18 at 2:00 p.m. PST (5:00 p.m. EST). There will be a live audio stream available  here . Apple also notes that the call will be made available for replay for 2 weeks. 

Do you know that the Aplle stock is cheap. Although they are driving the whole industry, and earning more than anyone else, they still are valued as another S&P500 company. Horace try to analyze and to give an explanation in the end of his post. Do you know something about this? A post from asymco by Horace Dediu has the whole story . Here it is with his kindly permission: In a  recent but recurring lament  I asked why Apple shareholders are not being rewarded for the company’s growth. I pointed out that there is no fundamental reason why the company should receive such a low P/E multiple (about 18 ex-cash trailing and 10x forward while maintaining 70% earnings growth for over a year). There were many objections in the comments. Most of them dealt with recent reasons why doubts might have arisen among investors: Android hegemony or some perceived lack of competitiveness leading to margin compression or some macro hangover from the recession. In this article I argue ...

Today iPhone for Verizon is awaited. And the 18th Apple will disclosure their earnings. Expect the stock to rise substantially until 18th. A post from The Unofficial Apple Weblog (TUAW) by David Winograd has the whole story . Here is a part: On a day where the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down by US $38.20 and the Nasdaq composite is nearly flat, once again,  AAPL  is bucking the trend and going straight up. At this writing Apple stock is at $342.05, (a new intra-day high) and bouncing. So far the stock is up $5.93 or 1.76 percent on moderate volume. I'm sure that this is at least partially due to the anticipated Verizon ( VZW ) announcement tomorrow.